Senegalese opposition Ousmane Sonko risks a lot at the rape trial heard against him on Tuesday, even if he sticks to his decision to ignore the summons of judges, according to him complicit in a plot of power to eliminate him of the presidential election of 2024.

This trial promises to be the culmination of a soap opera which, on the borders of politics and mores, has been keeping Senegal in suspense and agitating for two years. He could further compromise the presidential project of a popular figure among young people, and divisive.

Mr. Sonko declared that he would no longer cooperate with the justice system. He exposes himself to being brought before the court by force if he refuses to appear.

At 48, the president of the Pastef-les Patriotes party and mayor of Ziguinchor (south), is called before a criminal chamber in Dakar to answer for rapes and death threats against Adji Sarr, an employee in his twenties. a beauty salon in the capital.

The revelation, at the beginning of 2021, of the accusations against Mr. Sonko caused an electric shock. The complaint targeted the third in the 2019 presidential election, a former senior official dismissed for having denounced the practices of the system in place, a man with impetuous but polished language and imbued with religious and traditional references.

Adji Sarr’s complaint temporarily put the issue of rape in a public square where it was willingly passed over in silence. Adji Sarr has been attacked and threatened on social networks. But she always demanded justice.

“If Ousmane Sonko has never slept with me, let him swear on the Koran”, she challenged in March 2021.

Mr. Sonko admitted to having gone for a massage during the curfew to soothe back pain chronicles. But he asked “a preacher if (his) religion (him) allowed him to be massaged by women who are not (his) wives”. He made sure there were always at least two masseuses in the room, he said.

He always refuted the rapes and the threats, and shouted at the dirty trick.

His arrest in March 2021 on the way to court sparked several days of riots that left at least a dozen dead. His appointments with the justice system have regularly given rise to incidents or put Dakar under tension. His opponents describe him as an agitator fomenting an “insurrectional” project.

– The unknown Macky Sall –

Mr. Sonko has just been sentenced on appeal to a six-month suspended prison sentence for defamation following another complaint, that of a minister. If upheld, the sentence is widely seen as disqualifying him from electoral rights.

“Judicial banditry”, he exclaims. He will no longer appear “before this justice to answer anything”.

Will he be in court? His lawyers remain silent.

The Minister of Communication, Moussa Bocar Thiam, lawyer, underlined last week that “the State is involved in nothing” in private matters.

However, he warned, Tuesday’s case is criminal and if Mr Sonko does not appear he may be tried in absentia, or the chamber can “bring him to court”. A forced appearance could cause further turmoil. A conviction in absentia could mean the forfeiture of electoral rights.

Elimane Haby Ndao, president of Legs-Africa, a pan-African association with a scientific and political orientation, wonders about Mr. Sonko’s ability to get away with it thanks to the street.

“The State of Senegal has learned the lessons of March 2021 and (revised) its containment tactics”, and Mr. Sonko’s party has been tested by hundreds of arrests, he says. He underlines “the weariness of the citizens, exhausted by the toxic atmosphere and the recurring threats to their tranquility”.

Others believe that Mr. Sonko’s fate is not sealed, even if convicted. They invoke his popularity among those under 20 who represent half of the population, his pugnacity, the widespread hostility to a possible third term of outgoing Macky Sall and the surprises to be expected in the coming months.

“It’s a difficult time” for Mr. Sonko, said Maurice Dione, professor of political science in Saint-Louis (north). He acknowledges that President Macky Sall, with various initiatives, has driven a wedge into the opposition front, perhaps with the intention of “peripherizing” Mr. Sonko.

The president, elected in 2012, re-elected in 2019, maintains the vagueness on his intention to represent himself and to override the constitutional objections of the opponents of a third mandate.

“All the actions he takes suggest that he is moving towards a third, illegal candidacy,” said Mr. Dione. She “risks uniting the entire opposition against him, and therefore (his) strategy of division might backfire”.